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ASSEMBLY BIOSCIENCES, INC. (ASMB)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue rose to $9.4 million (+62% YoY) on higher collaboration activity with Gilead and amended funding, narrowing net loss to $8.8 million and improving diluted EPS to -$1.17 .
  • Actuals exceeded S&P Global consensus: revenue $9.42 million vs $7.41 million estimate; EPS -$1.17 vs -$1.60 estimate (2 covering analysts) — a beat on both lines (values retrieved from S&P Global)*.
  • Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities were $91.0 million; runway projected into mid-2026, consistent with prior update .
  • Management reiterated on-track timelines for multiple 2025 clinical readouts; interim Phase 1b efficacy data for ABI-5366 and ABI-1179 in recurrent genital herpes expected in fall 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Revenue beat driven by collaboration ramp and increased Gilead funding post-December 2024 amendment; Q1 revenue $9.4 million vs $5.8 million YoY .
  • Pipeline momentum: four candidates in ongoing clinical studies; interim Phase 1b data for ABI-5366 and ABI-1179 targeted for fall 2025; ABI-6250 Phase 1a and ABI-4334 Phase 1b readouts expected 2025 .
  • CEO tone constructive: “We continue the strong progress across our antiviral portfolio and remain on track for the multiple key clinical data sets we plan to deliver in 2025” .

What Went Wrong

  • R&D expenses increased to $14.9 million (+25% YoY) with higher spending on ABI-6250 and ABI-5366, elevating OpEx despite revenue growth .
  • No explicit financial guidance (revenue, margins, OpEx) beyond cash runway; investors must infer burn trajectory from expense trends .
  • No company-filed Q1 2025 earnings call transcript; limits visibility into management Q&A and near-term strategic prioritization (company 8-K and press release only) .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and Per-Share Metrics

MetricQ1 2024Q3 2024Q1 2025
Collaboration Revenue ($USD)$5.785 million $6.845 million $9.419 million
Net Loss ($USD)$9.077 million $9.613 million $8.818 million
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$1.66 -$1.51 -$1.17

Operating Expense and Cash KPIs

MetricQ1 2024Q3 2024Q1 2025
R&D Expense ($USD)$11.879 million $13.515 million $14.851 million
G&A Expense ($USD)$4.635 million $4.286 million $4.509 million
Cash + Marketable Securities ($USD)N/A$95.0 million $91.0 million
Weighted Avg Shares (basic & diluted)5,483,313 6,351,431 7,506,321

Profitability Ratio

MetricQ1 2024Q3 2024Q1 2025
Net Income Margin (%)-156.9%*-140.4%*-93.6%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Estimates vs Actuals (S&P Global consensus)

MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD)$7.41 million*$9.42 million*
EPS ($USD)-$1.60*-$1.17*
# of Estimates (EPS / Revenue)2 / 2*N/A

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Note: Actuals also shown in the company’s 8-K press release and statements .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash RunwayThrough mid-2026Mid-2026 runway (as of YE 2024) Mid-2026 runway reiterated Maintained
ABI-5366 Phase 1b Interim EfficacyFall 2025H1 2025 window pursued; first participants dosed Q4’24 Fall 2025 target (weekly and monthly dosing arms) Timed later (clarified)
ABI-1179 Phase 1b Interim EfficacyFall 2025Move directly to Phase 1b; concurrent with ABI-5366 Fall 2025 target (weekly dosing, multiple cohorts) Initiated, timing clarified
ABI-6250 (HDV) Phase 1a DataQ3 2025Initiated dosing Q4’24 Q3 2025 readout Maintained
ABI-4334 (HBV) Phase 1b DataH1 2025400 mg cohort data in H1 2025 H1 2025 readout reaffirmed Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No company-filed Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was available. Themes drawn from Q3 2024 and YE 2024/Q1 2025 press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024 and YE 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
R&D ExecutionQ3: ABI-5366 Phase 1a interim exceeded expectations; initiated Phase 1b dosing; YE 2024: four candidates with 2025 data; strong pipeline cadence On track for multiple 2025 data sets across HSV, HBV, HDV programs Positive execution momentum
HSV Program (ABI-5366/ABI-1179)Q3: ABI-5366 well-tolerated; half-life ~20 days; Phase 1b started ; YE: ABI-1179 positive interim PK, weekly dosing potential Fall 2025 interim Phase 1b efficacy planned; weekly/monthly dosing arms Milestones converging in fall 2025
HBV (ABI-4334)YE 2024: 2.9 log10 IU/mL HBV DNA decline at 150 mg; 400 mg cohort data H1 2025 H1 2025 efficacy/safety/PK readout reaffirmed Readout approaching
HDV (ABI-6250)YE 2024: Phase 1a dosing initiated Q3 2025 Phase 1a data planned Timelines maintained
Funding/CollaborationYE 2024: +$20.1m equity + $10m accelerated Gilead funding Revenue growth reflects increased collaboration activity and amended funding Collaboration tailwind continues
Cash RunwayYE 2024: mid-2026 runway Mid-2026 runway reiterated Stable liquidity outlook

Management Commentary

  • “We continue the strong progress across our antiviral portfolio and remain on track for the multiple key clinical data sets we plan to deliver in 2025” — Jason Okazaki, CEO & President .
  • “We are well-positioned to deliver important clinical data on four of our novel antiviral candidates in 2025” — Jason Okazaki, CEO & President (YE 2024 release) .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was filed or accessible via company documents; therefore, no Q&A detail is available to synthesize .
  • Third-party listings referenced a call time, but without a company transcript or filing, content cannot be verified .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 actuals exceeded S&P Global consensus: revenue $9.42 million vs $7.41 million; EPS -$1.17 vs -$1.60; coverage thin (2 estimates)*.
  • Given collaboration-driven revenue and evolving clinical timelines, near-term models likely lift revenue and narrow loss assumptions to reflect higher collaboration recognition and controlled G&A, offset by stepped-up R&D tied to HSV/HDV/HBV programs .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Strong top-line and EPS beats, with collaboration momentum and amended Gilead funding underpinning revenue recognition; watch for continued recognition cadence in 2025 .
  • Expense discipline in G&A and targeted R&D investment supported margin improvement; net income margin improved from -156.9% (Q1’24) to -93.6% (Q1’25)* .
  • Fall 2025 HSV Phase 1b interim efficacy readouts (ABI-5366 monthly/weekly dosing, ABI-1179 weekly dosing) are the principal stock catalysts; early antiviral activity signals could re-rate the HSV thesis .
  • HBV (ABI-4334) H1 2025 and HDV (ABI-6250) Q3 2025 readouts provide a steady cadence of potential de-risking events across programs .
  • Liquidity remains adequate with ~$91 million and runway into mid-2026; collaboration structure mitigates financing pressure near term .
  • Absent a Q1 call transcript, monitor upcoming conference appearances and subsequent filings for deeper insights into portfolio prioritization and trial operational risk .
  • Trading: near term, beats vs consensus and timeline reaffirmations are supportive; medium term, efficacy signals across HSV/HBV/HDV will likely drive estimate revisions and valuation reappraisal (values retrieved from S&P Global).*

Appendix: Additional Data Points

  • Q1 2025 revenue increased due to higher R&D under the collaboration and increased collaboration funding following the December 2024 amendment .
  • G&A decline reflects reduced rent under the amended headquarters sublease .
  • Prior-year YE 2024: R&D $55.9m, G&A $18.0m; net loss $40.2m; collaboration revenue $28.5m, highlighting the new collaboration’s full-year impact .

Sources: Company SEC filings and press releases as cited above. Values from S&P Global are indicated with an asterisk and noted as “Values retrieved from S&P Global.”